EVALUATING FORECASTING ACCURACY OF NIGERIAN AIR TRAVEL DEMAND.
Adeniran Adetayo Olaniyi
Department of Transport Management Technology, Federal University
of Technology Akure
discussed few of forecasting models and their application for travel forecasting
of international air passenger demand in Murtala Muhammed International Airport.
Secondary data of international air passenger demand from the period of 1995 to
2017 was used for analysis. The forecasting method analyzed included: single
moving average (n = 2, n = 3, n =4, n =5, n = 6, n = 7, n = 8, n = 9, n = 10)
and simple exponential smoothing method (α =0.1, α =0.2, α =0.3, α =0.4, α=0.5,
α=0.6, α=0.7, α=0.8, α=0.9). The accuracy of the forecasting method was measured
using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Root Mean
Square Error (RMSE). The accuracy of the forecasting method was measured using
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Root Mean Square
Error (RMSE). The result showed that the simple exponential smoothing with a
smoothing constant of 0.9 obtained the best accuracy; however, it was selected
as the most appropriate forecasting method. The 2018 forecast of international
air passenger travel demand in Murtala Muhammed International Airport will be
2,844,230. It was revealed that the higher the value of smoothing constant
nearer to 1, the more sensitive the forecast become the current conditions; the
lower the value of n for the single moving average, the more realistic or
reliable the forecast; simple exponential smoothing is more reliable than single
forecasting, accuracy, quantitative techniques, air transport.
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