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  Sci. Res. Impact.  

  6(2): 490-508, August 2020

 

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Scientific Research and Impact, Vol. 6(2), pp  490-508 August 2020

doi:1014412/SRI2020.508

(ISSN 2315-5396) 2020 Science Park Journals

Full Length Research Paper

 

 

 

Trend analysis of Maritime Piracy and Armed Robbery (MPAR) incidents along the Gulf of Guinea from 2007 – 2018.

 

Jatau Solomon Usman and  Imrana Abdulrahman,

.

Nigerian Institute of Transport Technology (NITT), Zaria.

 

 Abstract

This academic study presented an in-depth analysis of the trend of maritime piracy and armed robbery (MPAR) in the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) using the best time series model. A documentary method of data collection was used in the study from the website of International Maritime Bureau (IMB) as well as documented shipping activities on maritime piracy and armed robbery. The research used the available data of piracy and armed robbery in the GoG from 2007 to 2018. The statistical tools used for analysis included: Time Series Analysis, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and the Post-Hoc Analysis. The analysis was performed with the aid of Microsoft Office Excel and Minitab statistical software. Results of the analysis indicates that the highest incidents were recorded in 2018 (13.4%), 2008 (11.0%) and 2012 (10.2%) of the total incidents respectively. Between 2007 and 2018, a total of 610 MPAR incidents took place within the GoG with a yearly average of 51, equivalent to 37.3% of the total 1,637 incidents across the African continent and that translates to 18.0% of the 3,391 worldwide MPAR incidents. The highest frequency of the incidents took place in four months of the first half of the years under study (May, April, January and March) which accounted for 10.5%, 10.2%, 9.2% and 9.0% of the total incidents respectively, representing 40% of the total incidents. The top rankings are Nigeria, Ghana, Togo and Guinea with 344, 35, 35 and 33 cases recorded which accounted for 56.4%, 5.7%, 5.7% and 5.4% respectively. Nigeria alone recorded 205 (74.0%) piracy incidents and the rest of GoG shared the remaining 72 (26.0%). On the other hand, Nigeria alone accounted for 139 (41.7%) armed robbery incidents, leaving 194 (58.3%) to the remaining 17 GoG countries. In general, Nigeria is found to be the most dangerous piracy and armed robbery hotspot within GoG and accounted for 56.39% of the total incidents that happened between 2007 and 2018. It can be seen that MPAR have an approximate constant forecast of 51 from 2019 to 2022 while an increased value of 52 was forecasted for 2022. A total of 256 MPAR cases will probably take place within the study area between 2019 and 2023 if all factors are held constant and more efforts are not put into action.  It is therefore, recommended that maritime security arrangements in the Gulf of Guinea need a committed collaborative policy formulation and implementation. The international community should assist the GoG in fighting piracy and armed robbery issues. However, until the consideration of maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea is raised from the operational to the governmental level and there is political will by West African countries to defend the region’s waters, the Gulf of Guinea will remain a challenged security area.

 

Key words: Trend, Maritime, Piracy, Armed Robbery, incidents, Gulf of Guinea

                                                                                                       

 

 

            

This is an open access article published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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